03 September 2008

The Reverse of Creepy and Why the Republicans Will Win in November ...

This from Oliver Burkeman's very funny 'live from the Republican National Convention' blog at The Guardian:
"PALIN POWER!" says one of the handmade signs the crowd's waving. I wonder if it's one of the handmade signs you see Republican party operatives blatantly handing out to delegates on the way in here..."
You will recall that a while back I criticized the converse ill-advised visual strategy on the part of the Obama campaign.


My prediction? Barring some unforeseen event, McCain and Palin beat Obama and Biden this November. And it will not be real close either. Not a landslide, but a handy margin. Why? First, the Republicans are going to capture the "aw shucks," small town, populist types because, well, Sarah Palin is one of them. She gave a terrific speech tonight (putting aside issues of veracity and policy effectiveness and looking simply at style and delivery). Second, she will give all the white voters who 'are not ready to elect a black man president' (we can call them racists) a positive reason to vote Republican (we can call that a rationalization). Third, Obama and Biden will not fight back in the way they clearly will need to do. They are Democrats and the party has forgotten how to play politics. So, as my friend Susan just said, even if they want to fight back, the Democrats are not any good at it.



Blogger Robert S. said...

Hope you're wrong about the election, though you raise good points.

Consider these points, too, though:

>Palin's nomination seems to have worked well with the converted (and I mean the literally converted in this case, too), but so far seems to have turned off the undecideds

>African-Americans will likely vote in huge numbers and I doubt the Palin nomination has done much to swing them McCain-wards

>How will Palin square against Biden in the debates? She may ave prepared remarks, but she won't have a teleprompter to depend on then. I have a feeling the gaps in her knowledge are likely to start cropping up

04 September, 2008 13:16  
Blogger Dawei_in_Beijing said...

As I write this, I'm listening to McSame's speech on MSNBC.com. I must admit, I'm starting to feel a bit better about Obama's chances, now. McSame is one of the most boring, clumsy, and sluggish public speakers, I've ever heard. How did he win the nomination, again?

04 September, 2008 21:57  
Blogger Natalie said...

Robert S., good call on the debates! I have to get some popcorn ready for that one. I hope that between Palin's past, her current actions, and her general character traits, she is able to alienate the Republican party from anyone but "the base."
My hopes remain high for the Obama/Biden ticket, but I do agree that they must fight hard and start now. I really hope you're wrong Jim.

05 September, 2008 09:18  
Blogger Stan B. said...

Yup, one and two are a given. And if "the best" of the Democrats couldn't thoroughly defeat, humiliate and obliterate one hapless George W. Bush, exposing him for what he truly is (particularly in debate)- I see no "change" in strategy this time either...

05 September, 2008 10:19  

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